The father of Taiwan "stock market": the bull market in the second half of the field into the feast without curtain _ shanghaizhengquanhuiguan

"Or phone interview, I think not enough lively e-mail. "The caliber of proposal, this week's reporter through IP telephony and channel the head he was alive. Although and caliber of pigment never, but it was his full of vitality in the phone, my heart is overwhelmed by the thought of him as a broker had a day to play 500 phone straight to his mouth bleeding story. It is this day 500 phone efforts caliber at 34 becomes first Chinese Merrill, Vice President. And in 1986, he was in the Taiwan stock market prediction at 800 points up to 8000 points legend, let him become the island's popular "the father of the stock market." The father of the "stock market" in the title, "he admits. His wish is a church of small shareholders in the "rough" k-line in swimming, so, sometimes even 1 day even speak 7 field, about 20 hours a day, he also. Since 1 March he will lecture at Peking University, has a, no wonder impatient continents media harassment "," red weekly short 1 hour interview, interrupted by Beijing peer 4, 5 times. The current A-share market "monk porridge" balanced "red weekly: 1 and a half months ago you had to predict stock index in 6000 points above will experience pressure to today, as in the attack on Prev close 6000 points after substantial callback, especially after the collapse of the Thursday, it was feared that the feast is a bull market is about to end?" he forecast at that time is short, I think the long line of feast there does not appear to the end of the signal. My knee rheumatism can predict the market's trends, it has not been tell me the Mainland's stock market trend to reverse (smiling). The Wall Street work, no computer drawing, I daily kneeling on the floor plate, drawing and analysis of various graphics that prolonged kneeling work let me knees with "ESP", every time a tape is not good, it will be a dull pain. I see a doctor in Taiwan, the doctor had jokingly asked me to take the trouble to give him the "contagious" (laugh). These days a little back to the stalls there is nothing terrible, the trend has not been compromised and my knee and no pain. The Red weekly ": in addition to your knees, in your opinion, determine the end of a bull market also needs what characteristics? caliber: knee rheumatism to the market's reaction may follow me up feelings about it. I won't lie, I'm on the stock market's judgement is based on many years of statistical data. By Japan, Singapore and other market research, I think that as long as the account number of the total population of less than 10%, the market would not have to bear, this period is less than the "Club", even if a monk appeared to stall, investors have to worry about, just ran away from his kicks on the sofa watching TV. Judgment of the stock return rail occurred an important feature is that if the big wheel returnability stalls in more than 20% but not more than 25% over the next 10 business days and do not have to return to the top, should be entered into a medium-term adjustment, this adjustment may be a month or so. For example, stock index fell from 6000 points to 4800 points, 10 trading days also cannot rise, to caution at this time. By niuzhuanxiong sign is dropped from the index of more than 25% of high-grade, and continuous harvest month line three Yin lines, said even fell 3 months, under such circumstances, we judge the future needs to be more cautious. The Red weekly: from 4000 to 6000 point, while the bull market in succession, but many investors feel that making money is hard. Caliber: you this question. Now the situation is somewhat different, "5" 30 ", the chimpanzee darts selected stock can run WINS Fund Manager of the portfolio, but not now. According to the present 1 billion 3 million of accounts, it is already accounted for 10% of the total population. My rough calculation, if accounts for 10% of the total population, the corresponding index should be 6000 points. Therefore, I judge A unit has been entered into the first stage of maturity, "monk" and the "Club" of the balance of power. Once an account number to 10% of the total population, will become very difficult, and make index lost money is very common during this period. Therefore, simply be dead Bull does not make sense. In 6000, investment depends on real talent, you can use my "shepherd" theory to pick stocks, identify promising stocks, but also learn skills, try to make "make small compensates." Short-term risks long line is optimistic about the Red weekly: 1988, Taiwan's stock market crash lessons, please make A unit is now in a kind of stage? what Taiwan deserves A unit reference? caliber: Taiwan late 1980s by the stock market crash and the recent upsurge of A unit, no background are in local currency appreciation and high economic growth phase, the international hot money flows. I remember that NT one-time revaluation 40% to 50%, the result wasn't able to put the hot money left on the island, the stock market will crash. While the continent in this regard is wise, regardless of the pressure of the United States or the EU, the appreciation of the renminbi is gradually, so that to keep the hot money is very helpful. Although from 2000-3000 points, foreign capital began to sing the empty A unit, but I think the Mainland's stock market does not like at the Taiwan stock market bubble so serious. The upward trend of the market has not fundamentally changed, just over the golden opportunity to reduce a lot, but I haven't seen flip back to the stalls of the signal. As for the stock market is in a kind of phase, I think there should be a medium-term partial phase. Bull market cycle in General is 4 years, but our A-shares rise too much, too fast. I do not want to repeat the mainland Taiwan stock market crash, therefore, it is recommended that you do more investor education, let our stock market long long long development, ran a pretty "Marathon". The Red weekly: recent QFII believes A unit of rising has entered the epilogue, domestic base "payment institutions also expressed concern on gaoguzhi. Caliber: now the Mainland economy of ultra high speed growth, I thinkA unit of 60 to 80 times the earnings are acceptable. If economic growth slows, I think it is a bit high. I worry about is index rising too quickly. According to the "gravity theory", index high will be back to stall. I think the slow cattle is the ideal State, if the index goes up too fast, a unit of comparison turns the pace of adjustment, scattered, so that the "Daniel" hold "calf" walking is very dangerous. But if the stock does not make adjustments, rest, the market will panted ran faster and more difficult. Hot mess, I think short-term risks, should never be taken lightly. But the long line of foam I have not seen, can also be optimistic about. The Red weekly: October 22, announced approval of gold in 10 futures company become a member, this means that the stock index futures have been away from formal launch. You feel it in the long term and short term can have on A unit of the impact that? "he: theoretically, stock index futures on the stock market is not affected by long-term, short-term a little risk. Stock index futures are speculative, there is also danger of function, is a two-way street. For corporate users, use futures could evade market risk, but some individual investors can also use it to do speculative transactions. As long as the hedging and speculative single balance operates on the stock market does not have a big impact, and if the corporate big hedge-less than speculation, the short-term volatility of the stock market. Note that stock index futures have Zoom effect. Market, it will intensify; fell, it would be adding insult to injury. Specific risk depends on the management of control, in any case, from the history of the development of capital markets, the introduction of the stock index futures that investors have a choice, this is very healthy. The next 10 years A stock will go beyond Hong Kong stocks the Red weekly: H unit and the red chips return A unit is a general trend, the linkage between the market and stronger in the future A unit and the Hong Kong market relations between you, who will master the pricing right? "he: A-H strand is the seesaw. In my view, the Hong Kong stock market is like a water cistern, if insufficient drainage from somewhere else. Hong Kong to mainland market has a special role, for example the Mainland to ease inflationary pressures can open QDII, the water. It is played in mainland water regulation. Compared to the rest of the world stock market, I think the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets biggest advantage lies in this. As to pricing power, I think that in 10-15 years later, you can see the features of the Hong Kong market and not A unit on the Mainland. As A share of the growing internationalization, Shanghai and Beijing in international financial market position will go beyond Hong Kong. If the index is able to maintain steady growth, I can say that 10 years after the Mainland's stock market will become a great "magnet energy", the world's capital attracted to come in. So, I think in the long term, the pricing power also lies in the hands of A unit. At present should read less dynamic red weekly: a bull market in "structural", you think it should be how to grasp the market to the rhythm of? caliber: a long bull market, financial and real estate are indispensable plate, of course, this also with appreciation of the Renminbi. In addition, it is recommended to everyone concerned about the "domestic demand driven " plate, such as food, textile, and so these people's consumer stocks, these are bull market benefiting from a large plate. Olympic stocks I think is worth mentioning that the aviation, tourism and other plate is very interesting. Now, a unit of confusion, the Board of adjustment fast, almost invisible to the hotspot, which suggests that everyone start nervous, this time it is best to look at least. Do not blindly follow high, possibly a chasing high on punters. Stir-fried stock to go along with the immediate hot, popular shares temporarily so don't do it. Otherwise, there is a belt getting wide "nitch, much to the unit sell" pale, so tired, not worth it. The Red weekly: you have said, the girls learn to trade stocks, my understanding is to study women's patience and carefulness. He replies: I think the girls of intuition is very powerful, it may be because often go shopping (shopping), she is particularly sensitive to price, this feature is great for doing stock. Money people usually understand the mentality are nice tips man. As to the basic plane, I have done in the United States, know this kind of accounting is not completely blind faith. Even if the fundamentals of good stock, if you don't know the operation techniques, also in 10 bucks to buy 12 block throws away. No operation technology, then good fundamentals. "Data links" "trade stocks," he said, "the shepherd" theory: I worked in the United Kingdom to visit a sheep, he's only had 200 sheep than keep 5000 sheep neighbor richer. His theory is the sheep to concentrate not on, his family's sheep light bonus is better than the next door neighbor keeps 500 sheep's revenue, in addition, his family's sheep breeding is also very good, look good. Back to Wall Street, I changed the past situation, every day, just staring at the 20 stocks, died in stock are kept "alive", it is because of speculation in the stock market is fine but do not care much. "Gravity" theory: the stock market index naturally followed by a line in the race, "gravity". Rose too much it sucked down fall too much to collect. True that thread is 30, index of average price, plus 72, index of average price, add up to divide by 2, you can reach this figure. Suppose that this index is 4000 points, above it, to being sucked up by the region is 10%, is 4400 points, which requires careful only to sell, not to buy. Suddenly one day bad here, 4000 points, fall below 10%, is 3600 points, this place should be bought. "Gravity" index at any time to change, it can help us to see the stock market is high or low in the region. Farmer planting: buy stock in fact just like sowing seeds, we don't know which one seed germination, would not know whichA seed is bad, so buy a stock, you must strictly comply with two principles: first, to set up 3% of reduction code point, in the event of a stock price decline will not only be coded, and don't hesitate to stop; second, set up 3% of point bet, caught in the stock price to buy the last primary cost, each having to rise 3% (closing price), then the stakes in hand, so continuing. But if you experience dropped by more than 3%, you need to reduce code-hand. In order to abandon the germination of seeds, not to the irrigation growing seeds. Farmer planting operation principle is based on a good stock always rose little back. Rising number of foodstuffs, hand-holding will naturally increase small minus all the way to the profit carried forward.